Ross Ongaro has been predicting 17 or 18 wins would be enough to qualify for NPSL's post-season since late January.
 
As it turns out, Ongaro prognostication is bang on.
 
However, if Ongaro's 16-22 Edmonton Drillers don't come up with their 17th win of the season at Molson Centre tonight, the playoffs are a moot point for the second-year squad.
 
A loss to the Montreal Impact, 7-3 in their last 10 starts and 16-22 overall, would drop the Drill a game back of Paul Kitson's squad in the Northern Division standings, with one game to play and no hope of passing the Impact.
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On the other hand, Drill victories tonight and Sunday, coupled with an Impact loss in Milwaukee tomorrow, would vault Ongaro and Co. into the playoffs for the second straight season.
 
Should the teams finish the regular season with identical win-loss records, Montreal would clinch the final playoff berth by virtue of its superiority in head-to-head meetings with the Drill.
 
Going into tonight's matchup, Montreal leads the seasonal series 4-1 and is coming off Tuesday's 8-6 win at the Coliseum.
 
"It's do-or-die for us,", said Drill goalkeeper Scott Hileman, who will make his franchise-record 39th straight start tonight. "There was a lot of pressure on us Tuesday but I think there will be less pressure on us tomorrow.
 
"We have to go in there with the attitude that we've got nothing to lose. It seems like every game this year is a game that we've had to win to put ourselves in a good spot.
  
NEVER TOO LATE
 
"There's so many games that we can look back on now that are coming back to haunt us. It's not too late for us to go on a roll. If we can steal two, that will give us some momentum to go into the playoffs.
 
"In the last seven or eight games, our main problem has been first-half scoring. We've been sluggish in the first half, for sure."
 
In a season fraught with must-win situations, there's no margin for error against the Impact. Despite being the best defensive outfit in the 13-team league, the Drill bench boss says defence isn't winning his squad too many games.
 
"They're going to have to put the ball in the net," offered Ongaro, whose side hosts Cincinnati to close out the regular season Sunday. "You're not going to win by scoring six points.
 
"We can complain about all kinds of things but you've got to score more than six points to win. In this league, you've got to score 12 points and we just haven't been able to do that. Teaching goal scoring is difficult.
 
"We hold teams to an average of 10.1 points per game but you're not going to win just playing defence. And it's not like we're playing a defensive style here, we're creating chances but the ball just hasn't been going in as well as it should."
 
If Montreal's dominance over the Drill weren't enough, Ongaro's side has struggled on the road, going 3-16 away from the friendly confines this season. Only Cincinnati (1-18) and Baltimore (2-18) have fewer road wins.
 
That the Impact are 2-0 against the Drill on home turf comes as no surprise to Ongaro, who picked Montreal to finish in second spot behind his squad in a pre-season poll.
 
Owing to a quirk in the NPSL schedule, Ongaro knew facing the Impact six times wasn't going to be easy after the team's initial meeting in November.
 
"In our division, one of the four teams would play another team six times and the other two five times," he said. "A lot of people were saying, 'Oh, you play Montreal six times. That's good news.'
 
"After I saw them play the first game I said, 'It's not good news because they are going to be a strong team.' Things just weren't clicking early for them."
 
Indeed they weren't. After a 6-18 start, head coach Johan Aarnio was sacked and Kitson brought in. Under Kitson, who took over the club Feb. 10, Montreal is 10-4.
  
TURNED IT AROUND
 
According to Kitson, the Impact turned their season around at the tail-end of a five-game road trip which began in late February.
 
"We lost the first two games and then won three in a row and, I think, with us winning those three games on the road the team basically gelled and came together," he surmised.
 
"Destiny is in our own hands. We went into Edmonton and beat them in their building and it's quite possible for them to come into our building and beat us.
 
"I'll let the players know it's not over. They will come out and give it their best shot. It's up to us now that we're holding the aces in our hand to say whether we want to hold on to them or give them away."